Inter-annual Monsoon Rainfall Variability over Myanmar – Abstract

Journal of Environmental and Agricultural Sciences (JEAS). Sein et al., 2015. Volume 4: 28-36

Open Access – Research Article

Inter-annual variability of Summer Monsoon Rainfall over Myanmar in relation to IOD and ENSO
  Zin Mie Mie Sein1,2, Bob Alex Ogwang1,3, Victor Ongoma1,4,*, Faustin Katchele Ogou1,
Kpaikpai Batebana1
1Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, P.R. China
2Department of Meteorology and Hydrology, Myanmar
3Uganda National Meteorological Authority, Kampala, Uganda
4South Eastern Kenya University, Kitui, Kenya


Abstract: Monsoon rainfall has significant impact on socio-economic welfare of Myanmar. This calls for need to understand rainfall variability in order to minimize socio-economic losses associated with extreme weather events. This study investigates the inter-annual variability of summer monsoon rainfall over Myanmar in relation to Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO).The dominant modes of variability of rainfall were identified by performing Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis, using rainfall data from Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) spanning from 1971 to 2010.The rainfall over Myanmar is negatively correlated with the positive phase of the IOD and positively correlated to the positive phase of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI),implying that El Nino events result into drought events in the region, while La Nina events result into floods. The year 2001 was identified to be the wettest while 1972 is the driest period of study.  The influence of SOI on rainfall over Myanmar is more than that of IOD. The moisture convergence characterizes circulation in wet years, while divergence is dominant during dry years. The findings of this study are important in improving the accuracy of seasonal forecast over Myanmar.

Keywords: El Nino, ENSO, EOF, IOD, La Nina, Myanmar, Rainfall

*Corresponding authors: Victor Ongoma; Email: victor.ongoma@gmail.com


Cite this article as: Sein, Z.M.M., B.A. Ogwang, V. Ongoma, F.K. Ogou and K. Batebana. 2015. Inter-annual variability of summer monsoon rainfall over Myanmar in relation to IOD and ENSO. Journal of Environmental & Agricultural Sciences. 4:28-36. [View FullText] [Citations]


Copyright © Sein et al., 2015. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium provided the original author and source are appropriately cited and credited.


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