Evaluation of Past and Future Extreme Rainfall Characteristics over Eastern Uganda

Journal of Environmental and Agricultural Sciences (JEAS). Ahmad et al., 2019. Volume 18: 38-49

Open Access – Research Article

Evaluation of Past and Future Extreme Rainfall Characteristics over Eastern Uganda

Nimusiima Alex 1,*, Kisembe Jesse 1, Nakyembe Neoline 1
1 Department of Geography, Geo-Informatics and Climatic Sciences, Makerere University, Kampala, Uganda

Abstract: Weather and climate are very important to everyday life because they affect almost every sector of the economy. Climate change associated with increased weather and climate extremes and its associated impacts has become equally important. These weather extremes can be characterized in terms of indices involving precipitation intensity, duration and frequency. This study examined the past and future characteristics of extreme rainfall over Eastern Uganda with 1981-2010 taken as baseline period and 2021-2050 representing a future period. Annual trends in four precipitation indices were analyzed: number of days with precipitation ≥20mm and 50 mm, very wet day precipitation quantity and simple daily intensity index. Linear trends were calculated by using the least squares fit and significance of the trends were identified using the Student t-test. The results showed an overall decreasing trend of all rainfall indices during the period of 1981-2010. Projected trends indicated positive trends in all the indices except the Simple daily intensity index which was projected to have negative trends under RCP4.5. Projected shifts in the mean values also indicated significant increments in all indices. These results indicate that rainfall extremes will continue in the future and therefore it calls for decision-makers to design appropriate preparedness and mitigation strategies in Eastern Uganda.
Keywords: Climate change, climatic extreme; extreme rainfall; future climate projection.

*Corresponding author: Nimusiima Alex

Cite this article as:

Alex, N., K. Jesse and N. Neoline. 2019. Evaluation of past and future extreme rainfall characteristics over Eastern Uganda. Journal of Environmental & Agricultural Sciences. 18:38-49. [Abstract] [View Full-Text] [Citations]

Copyright © Alex et al., 2019. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium provided the original author and source are appropriately cited and credited.

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