Empirical Relationships between Banana Yields and Climate Variability over Uganda

Journal of Environmental and Agricultural Sciences (JEAS). Sabiiti et al., 2016. Volume 7: 3-13

Open Access – Research Article

Empirical Relationships between Banana Yields and
Climate Variability over Uganda

Geoffrey Sabiiti ^1,3*, Joseph Mwalichi Ininda ², Laban Ogallo ^2,3, Franklin Opijah ², Alex Nimusiima ¹, George Otieno ^2,3, Saul Daniel Ddumba ¹, Jamiat Nanteza ¹, Charles Basalirwa ^1
1 Department of Geography, Geo-informatics and Climatic Sciences, Makerere University, Uganda
² Department of Meteorology, University of Nairobi, Kenya
³ IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC), Kenya

---

Abstract: Variations in weather and climate have a significant impact on rain-fed banana yields in East Africa. This study examined empirical linkages between banana yields and variations in rainfall and temperature over Uganda for the historical period (1971-2009) using time series moments, correlation and regression analysis. The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) Crop Water Assessment Tool (CROPWAT) was used to estimate banana crop water requirements, soil moisture deficits and their effects on banana yield levels under rain-fed conditions for different regions. The study observed high comparability in moment indices with some significant differences reflected in the values of the banana yields and rainfall and temperature moment indices. The cumulative effect of rainfall and temperature variations on banana yields was discernible from strong correlation coefficients of up to 78%. The CROPWAT simulations indicated up to 46% reductions in optimal banana yields due to soil moisture deficits within banana plantations. In conclusion, the study observed stronger linkages between banana yields and temperature variations than rainfall. In addition, temperature manifests both direct and indirect effects on banana growth while rainfall exhibits comparatively high intra-seasonal and intra-annual variability with lag effects on banana yields. The study provides a strong scientific basis for the development of coping, adaptation and mitigation strategies in the banana farming subsector in the region due to the anticipated shifts in rainfall and temperature extremes and changes across Uganda and neighbouring regions.

Keywords: Empirical linkages, Rainfall, Temperature, Soil moisture, Banana yields.

*Corresponding author: Geoffrey Sabiiti: geosabiiti@caes.mak.ac.ug

---

Cite this article as Sabiiti, G., J.M. Ininda, L. Ogallo, F. Opijah, A. Nimusiima, G. Otieno, S.D. Ddumba, J. Nanteza and C. Basalirwa. 2016. Empirical relationship between banana yields and climate variability over Uganda. Journal of Environmental & Agricultural Sciences. 7: 03-13.  [Abstract] [View Full–Text] [Citations].

---

Copyright © Sabiiti et al., 2016. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium provided the original author and source are appropriately cited and credited.

---

References

Ampaire, E. L., Happy, P., Van Asten, P., Radeny, M. 2015. The role of policy in facilitating adoption of climate-smart agriculture in Uganda. CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS). Copenhagen, Denmark. Available online at: www.ccafs.cgiar.org

Basalirwa, C. 1991. Rain gauge network designs for Uganda. PhD. Thesis, Department of Meteorology, University of Nairobi, Kenya.

Bekunda, M., and P.L. Woomer. 1996. Organic resource management in banana based cropping systems of the Lake Victoria basin, Uganda. Agric. Ecosyst. Environ. 59:171−180.

FAO. (2003). Water Resources, Development and Management Service. CLIMWAT: A climatic database for CROPWAT. (Food and Agriculture Organisation), FAO Land and Water Development Division. http://www.fao.org/ag/AGL/AGLW/climwat.stm. Accessed 27 August 2012.

Gold, C.S., N.D.T.M. Rukazambuga, E.B. Karamura, P. Nemeye and G. Night. 1999. Recent advances in banana weevil biology, population dynamics and pest status with emphasis on East Africa. Proceedings of a workshop on banana IPM held in Nelspruit, South Africa, 23-28 November 1998. In: E. A. Frison, C.S. Gold, E. B Karamura and R. A. Sikora (eds.) 59:171-180.

Gold, C.S., E.B. Karamura, A. Kiggundu, F. Bagamba, and A.M.K. Abera. 1999a. Monograph on geographic shifts in highland cooking banana (Musa, group AAA-EA) production in Uganda. J. Africa Crop Science. 7:223–298.

Gold, C.S., E.B. Karamura, A. Kiggundu, F. Bagamba and A.M.K. Abera. 1999b. Geographic shifts in highland cooking banana (Musa spp., group AAA-EA) production in Uganda. International Journal of Sustainable Agriculture and World Ecology 6:45-59. National Council for Science and Technology (UNCST) in Collaboration with Program for Biosafety Systems (PBS), July 2007.

Indeje, M., F.H.M., Semazzi, and L.J. Ogallo. 2000. ENSO signals in East African rainfall seasons. Int. J. Climatol., 20:19-46.

Ininda, J.M. 1994. Numerical Simulation of the influence of sea surface temperature anomalies on the East African seasonal rainfall PhD. Thesis, University of Nairobi. Kenya.

Ininda, J.M. 1995. Simulation of the impact of sea surface temperature anomalies on the short rains over East Africa. J. African Meteor. Soc. 3(1):127-140.

Kabanda, T.A., and M.R Jury. 1999. Inter-annual variability of short rains over northern Tanzania. Climate Res. 13:231-241.

Karanja, F. K. K. (2006). CROPWAT model analysis of crop water use in six districts in Kenya, CEEPA Discussion Paper No. 35, CEEPA, University of Pretoria.

Komutunga, T.E. 2006. Optimum cropping calendars derived for rain-fed agriculture of Uganda from rainfall data. PhD Thesis, Department of Meteorology, University of Nairobi, Kenya.

Masefield, G.B. 1949. The Uganda Farmer. Longman, London.

McMaster, D.N. 1962. A Subsistence Crop Geography of Uganda. The world land use survey. Occasional papers no. 2. Geographical Publications Limited. Bude, Cornwall, England, 111.

Nyombi, K. 2010. Understanding growth of East Africa highland banana: experiments and simulation. PhD Thesis, Wageningen University, Netherlands.

Nyombi, K. 2013. Towards sustainable highland banana production in Uganda: opportunities and challenges. African Journal for Food, Agriculture, Nutrition and Development, 13:7544–61.

Ogallo, L.A. 1980. Time series analysis of rainfall in East Africa: PhD. Thesis, Department of Meteorology, University of Nairobi, Kenya.

Ogallo, L.A. 1988. Relationship between seasonal rainfall in East Africa and Southern Oscillation, J. Clim. 8:34-43.

Ogallo, L.A. and I.R. Nassib. 1984. Drought patterns and famines in East Africa during 1922-1983: The second WMO symposium on meteorological aspects of Tropical droughts, 1984, 41-44.

Okech, S.H., P.J.A. Van Asten, C.S. Gold, and H. Ssali. 2004. Effects of potassium deficiency, drought and weevils on banana yield and economic performance in Mbarara, Uganda. Uganda J. Agric. Sci. 9:511–519.

Omondi, A.P. 2010. The teleconnections between decadal rainfall variability and global sea surface temperatures and simulation of future climate scenarios over East Africa. PhD thesis, University of Nairobi.

Otieno, G.L., F.J. Opijah, J.N. Mutemi, L.A. Ogallo, R.O. Anyah, V.O. Ongoma, and G. Sabiiti. 2014. Seasonal rainfall forecasting using multimodel ensemble technique over Greater Horn of Africa, Int. J. Phys. Sci, 2(6):096-104.

Otieno, G. 2013. Assessing the Skill of the Seasonal Rainfall Prediction over the Greater Horn of Africa Using Global Models as Multi-model Ensemble. MSc thesis, University of Nairobi.

Sabiiti, G. 2008. Simulation of climate scenarios using the PRECIS Regional Climate Model over the Lake Victoria basin: MSc. Dissertation, Department of Meteorology, University of Nairobi, Kenya.

Salami, A., A.B. Kamara, and Z. Brixiova. 2010. Smallholder agriculture in east Africa: Trends, constraints and opportunities. Working Papers Series No. 105. African Development Bank, Tunis, Tunisia.

Shukla, J. and D.A. Paolino. 1983. The Southern Oscillation and the long-range Forecasting of the Summer Monsoon Rainfall over India. Mon. Wea. Rev. 111:1830-1837.

Smithson, P.C., B.D. McIntyre, C.S. Gold, H. Ssali, I.N. Kashaija. 2001. Nitrogen and potassium fertilizer vs. nematode and weevil effects on yield and foliar nutrient status of banana in Uganda. Nutr. Cycl. Agroecosyst. 59:239–250.

Speijer, P.R. and C. Kajumba. 2000. Yield loss from plant parasitic nematodes in East African highland banana (Musa spp. AAA) in Proceedings of the First International Conference on Banana and Plantain for Africa. (K.

Craenen, K. R. Ortiz, B.E. Karamura, D.R. Vuylsteke, eds.). 14-18 October, 1996. Kampala, Uganda. Acta Horticulturae. 540:453-459.

Speijer, P.R., C. Kajumba, and F. Sango. 1999b. East African Highland banana production as influenced by nematodes and crop management in Uganda. Int. J. Pest Manage. 45:41–49.

Speijer, P.R., W.J. Buchenberg, and R.A. Sikora. 1993. Relationship between nematodes, weevils, bananas and plantains cultivars and damage. Ann. App. Biol. 123:517-525.

Surendran, A., K.R., Ashok, S.N. Kulshreshtha, I. Vellangany, and R. Govindasamy. 2014. Does Climate Variability Influence Crop Yield? – A Case Study of Major Crops in Tamil Nadu. Agricultural Economics Research Review. 27(1):61-71.

Tushemereirwe, W.K. 2006. Experiences with banana bacterial wilts: the national strategy for the management of BXW in Uganda. In: Karamura, E.B., Osiru, M., Blomme, G., Lusty, C., Picq, C. (Eds.), Proceedings of the Banana Xanthomonas Wilt Regional Preparedness and Strategy Development Workshop. Kampala, Uganda, 14–18 February 2005. International Plant Genetic Resources Institute, Montpellier, 13–16.

Tushemereirwe, W.K., I. Kashaija, W. Tinzaara, C. Nankinga, and S. New. 2001. A guide to successful banana production in Uganda. Banana Production Manual, first ed. NARO, Kampala.

Tushemereirwe, W.K, A. Kangire J. Kubiriba, M. Nakyanzi, and C.S. Gold. 2004. Diseases threatening banana biodiversity in Uganda. J. Afr. Crop Sci. 12 (1):19-26.

Umesh, A., A.P. Nejadhashemi, and S.A. Woznicki. 2015. Climate change and eastern Africa: A review of impact on major crops. Food and Ener. Sec. 4(2):110-132.

Van Asten, P.J., A.M. Fermont and G. Taulya. 2010. Drought is a major yield loss factor for rain-fed East African highland banana. Agricultural Water Management, 98:541–552.

Van den B.I., J. Ramirez, C. Staver, D.W. Turner, A. Jarvis and D. Brown. 2012. Climate Change in the Subtropics: The Impacts of Projected Averages and Variability on Banana Productivity. Acta Hortic. 928:89-99.

Wairegi, L.W.I., P.J. Van Asten, A. Tenywa and M. Bekunda. 2010. Abiotic constraints override biotic constraints in East African highland banana systems. Field Crops Res. 117:146–153.

Washington, R. and H. Pearce. 2012. Climate Change in East African Agriculture: Recent Trends, Current Projections, Crop-climate Suitability, and Prospects for Improved Climate Model Information. CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS). Copenhagen, Denmark. Available online at: www.ccafs.cgiar.org.

Wiggins, S., and S. Keats. 2013. Leaping and learning: linking smallholders to markets in Africa. Agriculture for Impact, Imperial College and Overseas Development Institute London.

Zake, Y.K., D.P. Bwamiki and C.N. Kwiine. 2000. Soil management requirements for banana production on the heavy soils around Lake Victoria in Uganda. Acta Hort. 540:285−292.

 

---

Join Journal of Environmental and Agricultural Sciences (JEAS)

Interested to join the JEAS Team

Join JEAS as a member Editorial Board see Editors’ Responsibilities

Join JEAS as a member Review Panel  Reviewers’ Responsibilities

(send your CV through email at editor.jeas@outlook.com)

---

JEAS Indexing Journal of Environmental EAS is indexed by reputed indexing services.

Suggest Indexing service/s through email (editor.jeas@outlook.com)

---

Call for Articles
Submit Your research for publication in the “Journal of Environmental and Agricultural Sciences (JEAS)” through email: editor.jeas@outlook.com

• How to prepare your manuscript before submission
• How to submit your manuscript
• Publication Ethics
• Publication Fee Currently JEAS is publishing manuscripts without publication or processing fee

---

JEAS Recently Published and Highly Cited Articles
Citation record of JEAS: JEAS Google Scholar page
Follow  JEAS Facebook